Analysis of the Runoff Component Variation Mechanisms in the Cold Region of Northeastern China under Climate Change

Climate change alters hydrological processes in cold regions. However, the mechanisms of runoff component variation remain obscure. We implemented a WEP-N model to estimate monthly Songhua River Basin (SRB) between 1956 and 2018. All flow simulations were accurate (NSE > 0.75 RE < 5%). The annual was attenuated 1998, series (1956–2018) divided into base periods that year. Relative BS (base scenario), production reduction ?28.2% under climate water use. A multifactor attribution analysis showed use contributed 77.0% 23.0% reduction, respectively. Decreases surface explained 62.1% 35.7% increased by 8.5% 6.5% during freezing thawing periods, BS, groundwater recharge 9.2% 4.1% respectively, conditions. dominant factor attenuating flow. occurred mainly non-freeze-thaw period. decrease total SRB caused flow, where accounted for relatively small proportion. Production attenuation aggravated shortages. utilization rate resources is far below internationally recognized alarm line. Therefore, attention should be directed towards certain areas other regions with minimal exploitation.